Questions:

What are some studies of the development of the understanding of probability across the stages?

What are some studies of the understanding of expected utility --that is value, V, times the probability of obtaining that value, p(V)?¡¡Do both wait until formal operations?

Answer1:
Girotto, V., & Gonzalez, M. (2001). Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form. Cognition, 78, 247-276.
Girotto, V., & Gonzalez, M. (2005). Probabilistic reasoning and combinatorial analysis. In V. Girotto, & P. N. Johnson-Laird (Eds.) The shape of reason. New York: Psychology Press
Girotto, V., & Gonzalez, M. (2006). Norms and intuitions in the assessment of chance. In L. Smith &¡¡J. Voneche (eds). Norms¡¡in Human Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Answer2:

Yates, C. & Bond, T. (1991) SRTVIII: Probability. London: Science Reasoning. is one of the tasks deveoped by the Chelsea / King's College team of Shayer, Adey et al